Image from Wang JIA JUN’s original Medium article.
By Wang JIA JUN
Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first visit to India in seven years to attend the BRICS Summit in New Delhi, in a closely watched move that has renewed speculation over whether relations between the two Asian powers are beginning to thaw.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted Xi alongside Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, among other leaders. The leaders also visited an “Innovate India” exhibition held to mark the 20th anniversary of the BRICS grouping.
The summit concluded with a joint statement expressing concern over the war in the Middle East. Reuters described India’s effort to bring Iran and the United Arab Emirates — which have found themselves on opposing sides of regional tensions — into the same diplomatic framework as a significant test of New Delhi’s balancing act.
Yet it was Xi’s presence in India, and what it might mean for China-India relations, that attracted much of the international attention.
Xi’s Return to India Raises Questions About a Possible Thaw
China and India have experienced significant tensions in recent years, largely driven by their longstanding border dispute. Military clashes along the disputed Himalayan frontier severely damaged mutual trust and pushed bilateral relations to one of their lowest points in decades.
Against this backdrop, Xi’s return to India has prompted questions over whether New Delhi is reassessing its approach toward Beijing, particularly as India’s relations with the United States have also faced uncertainties.
Does Xi’s high-profile participation in the BRICS Summit signal the beginning of a broader thaw between China and India?
Stephen Nagy, a professor of international relations at International Christian University in Tokyo, told BBC Chinese that it would be premature to describe the current situation as a genuine bilateral thaw.
Instead, he argued that China and India share an immediate interest in bringing the conflict in the Middle East to an end.
“The conflict has had a negative impact on the economies of both countries and on their ability to maintain socioeconomic development and stability,” Nagy said.
In other words, the recent improvement in China-India engagement may be driven less by a fundamental resolution of bilateral disputes than by overlapping interests in managing growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
China, India Seek Room for Cooperation Amid Global Pressure
Jia-ying Chong, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, said India, China and the UAE all have reasons to strengthen cooperation amid an increasingly uncertain international environment and what he described as growing pressure from the United States.
However, Chong cautioned that it remains unclear whether the longstanding differences between China and India can be successfully put aside — or even effectively managed.
The border dispute remains one of the most sensitive issues between the two countries. While high-level meetings and gestures of cooperation can help ease tensions, they do not necessarily mean that the underlying disagreements have been resolved.
China’s Support for Iran Could Complicate Ties With the UAE
Another issue highlighted during the summit was China’s relationship with Iran, and whether Beijing’s support for Tehran could create obstacles to closer cooperation between China and the UAE.
Chong said it remains to be seen whether China’s position toward Iran could become a source of friction in its relations with the UAE.
He noted that the joint statement’s call for Iran to exercise restraint could be interpreted as a limited compromise between China and the UAE.
However, whether such diplomatic language will have any tangible impact remains uncertain, particularly given the rapidly changing situation in the Middle East.
A Strategic Rapprochement Rather Than a Full Thaw?
Xi’s return to India after seven years, together with his interaction with Modi and other leaders at the BRICS Summit, suggests that China and India may be seeking to stabilize their relationship and reopen limited areas of cooperation.
But it may still be too early to describe the development as a full-fledged “thaw.”
A more cautious interpretation is that Beijing and New Delhi are attempting to expand areas of cooperation while keeping their most difficult disputes — particularly the border issue — from derailing the broader relationship.
With both countries facing economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and intensifying competition among major powers, there are practical incentives for China and India to reduce the costs of confrontation and preserve diplomatic and economic engagement.
Xi’s visit may therefore represent an important signal that China-India relations are moving toward greater engagement. Whether that momentum can develop into a genuine improvement in bilateral ties, however, will depend largely on how the two sides manage their border dispute and whether they can rebuild a measure of strategic trust.
Originally published by Wang JIA JUN in Asia Horizon Review on Medium.