Pertamina station in Palembang, April 20, 2023. File photo, not November supplies. Cropped for display under the same licence. Firzafp / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0.
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By Evan Liu
Asia’s crude imports recovered sharply in October, but refined-fuel supplies have not recovered at the same pace. Kpler figures presented in Reuters columnist Clyde Russell’s November 2 analysis put crude arrivals at 26.39 million barrels a day, up from 24.24 million in September. Imports of light and middle distillates were about 6.15 million barrels a day, still roughly 10% below their pre-war average.
The distinction matters to businesses that need diesel, gasoline or jet fuel rather than crude. More oil arriving at a port does not necessarily mean those products are available in the required quantities.
Singapore gasoil was quoted at $168.62 a barrel on October 30, compared with $91.42 on February 27. Gasoline was $127.64, against $79.30. These are wholesale benchmarks, not the prices motorists pay across Southeast Asia.
Recovery must pass through refineries
Crude must be processed before it can meet most transport needs. Extraction and shipping are therefore only part of the supply chain. Refinery damage or operating constraints can keep usable fuel scarce even as crude arrivals improve.
The International Energy Agency’s October report forecast global refinery throughput of 81.7 million barrels a day in 2026, down 2.3 million from the previous year. It described pressure on diesel supplies and inventories as Middle Eastern and Russian product exports remained constrained.
Alternative crude is not always a straightforward substitute. Grades differ in density and sulfur content, and refineries are configured for particular mixtures and products. Changing feedstock may require adjustments that affect costs, efficiency and the amount of each fuel produced.
This is why a shipping recovery and a fuel-market recovery can occur at different speeds. One improves access to raw material; the other requires working equipment and a system that can deliver the finished product.
Southeast Asia faces different exposures
ASEAN economies vary in their oil production, refining capacity and import dependence. Countries relying heavily on imported products face price and supplier risks. Economies with refineries still need suitable crude, reliable equipment and distribution networks.
Singapore’s role as a refining and trading hub does not isolate it from global freight rates or feedstock costs. Its benchmarks help show regional pressure, but cannot establish the impact on each country’s consumers.
Diesel costs can reach trucking, farming and fishing directly. Manufacturers may feel the increase through transport charges or input costs even when their own machinery uses little diesel. Whether businesses pass costs on depends on contracts, competition and their ability to absorb them.
Subsidies and controlled prices can delay the effect on households. If international costs remain high, however, governments face larger funding needs or difficult choices about prices. Exchange rates, stocks and national policies mean the effects will not be uniform.
The next test is usable supply
The IEA expects diesel and gasoil markets to remain under pressure into 2027. That is a forecast, not a fixed deadline. Faster refinery recovery or additional exports could ease conditions; new attacks or shutdowns could worsen them.
Rebuilding inventories also takes time. A rise in output may first restore depleted stocks rather than immediately remove price pressure.
Diversifying sources and routes can help, but may add freight costs and operational complications. More domestic refining still leaves countries needing crude and reliable facilities. Electrification and efficiency can reduce some future oil demand, while many transport and industrial uses continue to require liquid fuel.
The indicators to follow are refinery output, product arrivals, inventory rebuilding and delivered prices. Crude import totals alone cannot show whether the fuel needed by households and businesses is reliably available.
Why can crude imports recover before fuel supply?
The supply chain has several separate tests. These indicators help explain why an improvement at one stage may not reach buyers immediately.
| Stage | What to watch | What it cannot establish alone |
|---|---|---|
| Crude arrivals | Volume and suitability for refineries | How much gasoline or diesel is available |
| Refining | Operating capacity and product output | Whether inventories have recovered |
| Product stocks | Inventory rebuilding and product arrivals | Delivery costs for each buyer |
| Distribution and retail | Delivered prices, freight and local pricing policies | A uniform impact across Asian economies |
Transcript and credits
Crude must pass through refining, inventories, transport and distribution before usable fuel reaches buyers. Track refinery output, product arrivals, stocks and delivered prices rather than crude import totals alone.
Compiled by E.K.K; companion analysis by Evan Liu on AHR.
Related AHR coverage
Follow the supply chain: Indonesia’s search for alternative fuel suppliers examines sourcing choices, while our Hormuz coverage follows the conditions for deliveries to Asian buyers.
Sources and editorial note
Edited bilingual edition of Evan Liu’s contribution to the Asia Horizon Review publication. Repetition has been condensed, source notes added and planned outcomes distinguished from completed actions. The author’s central analysis is retained.
Evan Liu — Medium original / 刊物原稿
Reuters/Clyde Russell: Kpler estimates and Singapore benchmarks, November 2
IEA: October 2026 Oil Market Report